Fire Crux HybridTier 2
at National-SEA 2025
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 11 | 3-7-1 | 31.8% | 36.7% | 37.8% | -5.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 44.1% | -3.2 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.4% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 57.1% | +4.6 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +9.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.4% | +17.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 44.9% | -4.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.2% | -17.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 5 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 22 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 22 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Majestic Spirit | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Disintegrate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |