Water FractalTier 2

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

The 50 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

• TTA 83 cards · placed #2
• Kean 83 cards · placed #19
• Slaine 83 cards · placed #37
• Xuan 87 cards · placed #43
• william 83 cards · placed #48
• TeamTrueCaban 85 cards · placed #52
• PokerKT 83 cards · placed #58
• Chris 83 cards · placed #62
• Raylam 87 cards · placed #63
• kiri 85 cards · placed #67
• DarrenLee 81 cards · placed #70
• Inaki 81 cards · placed #74
• Long 83 cards · placed #76
• Bujyu 83 cards · placed #77
• CPang 85 cards · placed #83
• Haimao 83 cards · placed #84
• Weiyee 82 cards · placed #86
• Zero0000000000 87 cards · placed #91
• KevinTung 81 cards · placed #92
• Woon 81 cards · placed #93
• Yue970141 81 cards · placed #95
• DuoDuo 81 cards · placed #99
• YongLe93 82 cards · placed #101
• pointHERE 81 cards · placed #110
• dennyhu 79 cards · placed #115
• Loading 83 cards · placed #118
• MephinX 83 cards · placed #127
• WilsonTo 80 cards · placed #128
• EnochLok123 83 cards · placed #134
• Perfy 85 cards · placed #137
• hachico 83 cards · placed #142
• fishball13 81 cards · placed #143
• Justinljw 81 cards · placed #146
• Keez 83 cards · placed #148
• elothere 83 cards · placed #149
• Guruthos 85 cards · placed #153
• JuFung207 81 cards · placed #156
• Neoniclax 85 cards · placed #180
• JCee 83 cards · placed #182
• GamingSiopao 85 cards · placed #183
• Sleep 85 cards · placed #190
• Chiufu 87 cards · placed #212
• Pizza 83 cards · placed #217
• Kakeru2004 85 cards · placed #221
• THUndAR 83 cards · placed #224
• aoiling 83 cards · placed #225
• Silverock 83 cards · placed #226
• Bocol123 81 cards · placed #230
• Lcoris 83 cards · placed #238
• kcin471 85 cards · placed #240

In 39 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 8 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).

Winners more often ran: Censer of Restful Peace, Scepter of Fascination, Diao Chan, Enchantress. Losers more often ran: Acquiescing Rejection, Frostsworn Paladin, Torpid Fractal.

↑ Played more by winners

Censer of Restful Peace

Winning decks ran 0.8 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 39 mirrors: the winner ran more in 14, the loser ran more in 7, both ran the same in 18.

Scepter of Fascination

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.8.

Of 39 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 31.

Diao Chan, Enchantress

Winning decks ran 1.0 copy on average, losing decks 0.8.

Of 39 mirrors: the winner ran more in 7, the loser ran more in 1, both ran the same in 31.

Viridian Protective Trinket

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.6.

Of 39 mirrors: the winner ran more in 14, the loser ran more in 9, both ran the same in 16.

Chill to the Bone

Winning decks ran 0.7 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 39 mirrors: the winner ran more in 10, the loser ran more in 5, both ran the same in 24.

Water Resonance Bauble

Winning decks ran 0.5 copies on average, losing decks 0.3.

Of 39 mirrors: the winner ran more in 13, the loser ran more in 8, both ran the same in 18.

↓ Played more by losers

Acquiescing Rejection

Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 39 mirrors: the loser ran more in 9, the winner ran more in 3, both ran the same in 27.

Frostsworn Paladin

Losing decks ran 3.5 copies on average, winning decks 3.4.

Of 39 mirrors: the loser ran more in 14, the winner ran more in 8, both ran the same in 17.

Torpid Fractal

Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 39 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 2, both ran the same in 29.

Nullifying Lantern

Losing decks ran 0.5 copies on average, winning decks 0.4.

Of 39 mirrors: the loser ran more in 12, the winner ran more in 6, both ran the same in 21.

Art of War

Losing decks ran 0.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.2.

Of 39 mirrors: the loser ran more in 10, the winner ran more in 5, both ran the same in 24.

Grand Crusader's Ring

Losing decks ran 0.9 copies on average, winning decks 0.8.

Of 39 mirrors: the loser ran more in 8, the winner ran more in 4, both ran the same in 27.