Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at National-SEA 2025
decks
38
(14.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
289
126-128-35
overall winrate
49.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
50.4%
avg ELO +0.1 per match
expected value
50.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1373
· median 1368
· range 1127–1694
(38 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1294
Q3 1463
1736
26% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 59 | 34-22-3 | 60.2% | 59.5% | 62.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 42 | 16-17-9 | 48.8% | 48.9% | 51.2% | +0.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 39 | 19-19-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -1.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 25 | 8-14-3 | 38.0% | 39.7% | 36.5% | -5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 22 | 6-9-7 | 43.2% | 44.2% | 44.7% | -2.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 35.3% | -6.8 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +4.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 11 | 8-1-2 | 81.8% | 73.3% | 71.3% | +9.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 14 | 3-10-1 | 25.0% | 30.6% | 33.6% | -6.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 9 | 4-3-2 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 60.3% | +4.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 55.9% | +3.2 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +1.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.1% | +6.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 7 | 2-3-2 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.2% | -1.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.7% | -2.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 31.1% | -14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 40.9% | -4.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +1.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.6% | -20.6 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.3% | +9.0 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.1% | +20.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 38 from this event
The 38 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
-
Mike0615
-
NiEN
-
Yukineko
-
Dennisyao
-
Leemoncha
-
Christian
-
Ikuri
-
scarlet710
-
Linus666
-
AidenW
-
Durstnt
-
SkYyeung
-
UBVOLA
-
Seannsj
-
Rty
-
yuchen
-
Render
-
AndyChou
-
mostima
-
Jeremy20240812
-
KirbyLu
-
Schwarzer
-
CHUNG
-
Jinzkakz
-
Panrad
-
Jayden
-
Summoner
-
Polarcub
-
SHOWXAYNE
-
Levin
-
JustineQuck
-
SpIn
-
Jhin
-
Brai
-
Moca
-
ThomasLi2
-
Justin890214
-
Jie
Mirror Analysis
In 20 mirror matches (5 draws excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 4 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Cry for Help, Innervate Agility, Blinding Orb. Losers more often ran: Reclaim, Penumbral Waltz, Viridian Protective Trinket.
Cry for Help
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 20 mirrors: the winner ran more in
11, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 7.
Innervate Agility
Winning decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 20 mirrors: the winner ran more in
9, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 8.
Blinding Orb
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 20 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 15.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Winning decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 20 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 9.
Stifling Trap
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 20 mirrors: the winner ran more in
8, the loser ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 8.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 20 mirrors: the winner ran more in
6, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 12.
Reclaim
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.5.
Of 20 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 6.
Penumbral Waltz
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 20 mirrors: the loser ran more in
10, the winner ran more in 4,
both ran the same in 6.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 20 mirrors: the loser ran more in
8, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 9.
Dungeon Guide
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 20 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 16.
Tariff Ring
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 20 mirrors: the loser ran more in
6, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 12.
Nullifying Mirror
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 20 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 14.
Show all 65 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 45 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cry for Help | +0.45 | 11 | 2 | 2 | |
| Reclaim | -0.30 | 4 | 10 | 6 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | -0.30 | 4 | 10 | 2 | |
| Innervate Agility | +0.30 | 9 | 3 | 5 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.25 | 5 | 0 | 14 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 3 | 8 | 6 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.25 | 8 | 3 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 4 | 16 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.20 | 2 | 6 | 7 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.20 | 1 | 5 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 6 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.15 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.15 | 3 | 6 | 11 | |
| Diablerie | -0.15 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.15 | 8 | 5 | 0 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| Slimeshield | +0.10 | 6 | 4 | 5 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 17 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | -0.10 | 1 | 3 | 16 | |
| Shadowstrike | -0.10 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Verdigris Decree | +0.10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | -0.10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.10 | 4 | 2 | 14 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.10 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Beseech the Winds | -0.10 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.05 | 7 | 6 | 0 | |
| Fairy Whispers | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 19 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 19 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | -0.05 | 6 | 7 | 7 | |
| Shimmercloak Assassin | +0.05 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.05 | 6 | 5 | 8 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 19 | |
| Guan Yu, Prime Exemplar | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Swift Recruit | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zephyr | -0.05 | 4 | 5 | 10 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.05 | 4 | 5 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reprogram | +0.05 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.05 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shadow Resonance | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sirocco Operative | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.05 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brackish Lutist | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Razorblade Execution | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire Mantle | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Betraying Blade | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.05 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veiling Breeze | +0.00 | 7 | 7 | 6 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Blackmarket Broker | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 12 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 18 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Seeking Shot | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| Disenchant | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |