Fire Crux MerlinTier 3
at National-SEA 2025
decks
2
(0.8% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
3-8-0
overall winrate
27.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
36.7%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
38.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
39.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1337
· median 1337
· range 1256–1418
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1294
Q3 1463
1736
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 33.5% | -15.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 45.9% | -2.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.2% | +21.1 |
