Fire SuzakuTier 2
at National-SEA 2025
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 13 | 8-5-0 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 68.5% | +7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 41.3% | -4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 14 | 3-11-0 | 21.4% | 27.8% | 32.2% | -7.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.8% | +10.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.4% | +8.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.3% | -10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.3% | +22.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.5% | -24.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.1% | +4.9 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.0% | -11.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | -21.0 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.6 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.2% | -20.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 66.3% | +26.0 |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.9% | +4.7 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.3% | +7.0 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Suzaku decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 40 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Staggering Strike | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Relic of Dancing Embers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fated Keepsake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crimson Protective Trinket | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slime Eruption | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fatestone of Unrelenting | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Baby Red Slime | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lavaplume Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |