Fire Luxem AssassinTier 2
at National-SEA 2025
decks
9
(3.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
90
58-25-7
overall winrate
68.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
67.3%
avg ELO +5.8 per match
expected value
58.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
58.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1443
· median 1419
· range 1225–1668
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1294
Q3 1463
1736
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
11% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 13 | 5-8-0 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 43.1% | -2.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 64.7% | +6.8 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 16 | 11-3-2 | 75.0% | 70.0% | 71.5% | +8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 50.4% | +0.2 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 10 | 3-4-3 | 45.0% | 46.4% | 46.7% | -1.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 9 | 8-0-1 | 94.4% | 80.8% | 87.1% | +17.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 67.7% | +10.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.6% | +1.2 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 79.2% | +16.8 |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.6% | -17.7 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.5% | +19.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.2 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 67.6% | +28.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 31.6% | -29.5 |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.8% | +12.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.5 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Luxem Assassin decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Striking Illuminance, Portentous Tanggu, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Expel the Departed, Mercenary's Blade.
Striking Illuminance
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Portentous Tanggu
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Scry the Skies
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Juggle Knives
Winning decks ran 3.6
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Planted Explosive
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Reduce to Ash
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Expel the Departed
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Mercenary's Blade
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Turbo Charge
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Wisdom's Reprise
Losing decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Exploit Vulnerability
Losing decks ran 3.2
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Striking Illuminance | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Expel the Departed | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wisdom's Reprise | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Juggle Knives | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gawain, Chivalrous Thief | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Luxera's Map | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Orb of Choking Fumes | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Reprogram | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Art of War | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gloamspire, Black Market | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Cleansing Light | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 |