EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at NA Nationals 2025.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Luxem Zander | 11 | 5.2% | 105 | 59.0% | 56.3% | 56.1% | 54.2% | 1464 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 8 | 3.8% | 64 | 52.3% | 59.6% | 54.5% | 59.2% | 1383 | — |
| 3 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 50.0% | 54.3% | 53.6% | 1459 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Seiryuu | 1 | 0.5% | 4 | 25.0% | 34.9% | 54.3% | 57.6% | 1343 | — |
| 5 | Water Fractal | 55 | 26.2% | 356 | 56.2% | 51.7% | 54.0% | 50.5% | 1411 | — |
| 6 | Wind Allies | 9 | 4.3% | 82 | 54.9% | 56.5% | 53.0% | 55.2% | 1386 | — |
| 7 | Water Neos | 1 | 0.5% | 6 | 41.7% | 47.3% | 52.6% | 52.2% | 1259 | ↓ low |
| 8 | Seiryuu | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 54.6% | 52.4% | 51.7% | 1340 | — |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 13 | 6.2% | 95 | 53.7% | 53.7% | 51.8% | 52.5% | 1415 | — |
| 10 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 1.9% | 28 | 51.8% | 51.9% | 50.8% | 51.8% | 1350 | — |
| 11 | Water Genbu | 21 | 10.0% | 174 | 52.6% | 51.3% | 49.9% | 49.2% | 1447 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Suzaku | 6 | 2.9% | 41 | 43.9% | 43.3% | 48.5% | 49.3% | 1341 | — |
| 13 | Water Crux Mage | 2 | 1.0% | 19 | 42.1% | 35.7% | 47.8% | 45.3% | 1387 | — |
| 14 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 43.8% | 42.9% | 47.7% | 46.7% | 1642 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Tera Cleric | 1 | 0.5% | 7 | 35.7% | 43.8% | 47.5% | 49.7% | 1162 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 0.5% | 12 | 45.8% | 59.2% | 47.4% | 55.3% | 1376 | — |
| 17 | Fire Aggro | 24 | 11.4% | 151 | 48.3% | 50.5% | 47.2% | 48.8% | 1382 | — |
| 18 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 2 | 1.0% | 14 | 50.0% | 52.4% | 47.2% | 49.5% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Fire Exia Jin | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 45.4% | 46.5% | 48.1% | 1525 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Water Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.0% | 16 | 43.8% | 48.0% | 46.4% | 50.2% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 21 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 56.2% | 57.6% | 46.4% | 50.0% | 1607 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Water Allies | 4 | 1.9% | 36 | 47.2% | 48.0% | 46.1% | 47.4% | 1370 | — |
| 23 | Wind Seiryuu | 8 | 3.8% | 64 | 41.4% | 44.2% | 45.9% | 47.9% | 1338 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 10 | 4.8% | 82 | 49.4% | 55.3% | 45.3% | 49.1% | 1305 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Kongming | 1 | 0.5% | 7 | 57.1% | 60.9% | 44.8% | 47.8% | 1401 | — |
| 26 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 43.8% | 42.7% | 44.7% | 42.7% | 1311 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 25.0% | 38.0% | 44.6% | 45.2% | 1417 | — |
| 28 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 0.5% | 12 | 54.2% | 43.9% | 44.0% | 39.9% | 1400 | — |
| 29 | Wind Exia | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 43.8% | 60.1% | 41.2% | 47.8% | 1145 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Wind Astra Cleric | 10 | 4.8% | 67 | 32.1% | 32.6% | 41.0% | 41.8% | 1338 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 50.6% | 40.5% | 43.8% | 1186 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Wind Slice & Dice | 1 | 0.5% | 7 | 14.3% | 39.0% | 40.2% | 44.8% | 1299 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Wind Overlord | 1 | 0.5% | 6 | 16.7% | 29.8% | 40.2% | 41.8% | 1242 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 1.0% | 16 | 31.2% | 34.3% | 39.9% | 40.5% | 1248 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 37.5% | 36.7% | 39.6% | 37.2% | 1309 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 0.5% | 7 | 14.3% | 26.8% | 39.4% | 41.1% | 1343 | — |
| 37 | Water Kongming | 1 | 0.5% | 8 | 25.0% | 37.2% | 38.1% | 40.0% | 1327 | ↓ low |