← DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR Portland Regional by Mox Valley Games.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suzaku | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 100.0% | 70.4% | 60.9% | 56.6% | 1474 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 78.6% | 71.2% | 56.4% | 57.9% | 1341 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 64.3% | 59.0% | 54.9% | 54.7% | 1179 | ↓ low |
| 4 | Water Genbu | 4 | 5.8% | 26 | 61.5% | 55.3% | 54.8% | 53.0% | 1366 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Wind Allies | 3 | 4.3% | 17 | 67.6% | 59.4% | 54.2% | 53.0% | 1293 | — |
| 6 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 5 | 7.2% | 28 | 58.9% | 46.5% | 53.5% | 49.1% | 1290 | — |
| 7 | Water Umbra Guardian | 4 | 5.8% | 24 | 60.4% | 52.0% | 52.3% | 50.2% | 1393 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 5 | 7.2% | 34 | 54.4% | 57.0% | 50.9% | 52.3% | 1302 | — |
| 9 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 5.8% | 29 | 46.6% | 53.9% | 50.5% | 52.5% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 8 | 11.6% | 50 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 50.0% | 50.8% | 1220 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 3 | 4.3% | 20 | 47.5% | 54.7% | 49.9% | 51.4% | 1326 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Water Astra Ranger | 3 | 4.3% | 22 | 45.5% | 42.5% | 49.7% | 47.8% | 1247 | — |
| 13 | Water Allies | 2 | 2.9% | 14 | 53.6% | 48.4% | 49.2% | 48.3% | 1262 | — |
| 14 | Wind Astra Cleric | 2 | 2.9% | 10 | 40.0% | 40.7% | 48.8% | 47.3% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Fire Crux Mage | 4 | 5.8% | 24 | 50.0% | 43.8% | 48.4% | 46.6% | 1359 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Fire Tera Cleric | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 50.0% | 54.2% | 48.0% | 48.8% | 1100 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 28.6% | 48.5% | 47.4% | 51.5% | 1064 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 31.0% | 47.2% | 41.5% | 1326 | ↑ top |
| 19 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 5.8% | 25 | 52.0% | 59.7% | 47.0% | 51.1% | 1288 | — |
| 20 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 51.3% | 46.9% | 49.1% | 1176 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 4.3% | 12 | 16.7% | 35.6% | 45.8% | 49.3% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Tristan | 1 | 1.4% | 8 | 25.0% | 40.1% | 45.7% | 48.2% | 1201 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Wind Exia | 1 | 1.4% | 3 | 33.3% | 50.7% | 45.5% | 49.3% | 1123 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.4% | 7 | 42.9% | 42.8% | 44.1% | 43.9% | 1212 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Suited | 5 | 7.2% | 25 | 36.0% | 39.8% | 43.7% | 44.8% | 1242 | — |
| 26 | Water Neos | 1 | 1.4% | 3 | 0.0% | 34.6% | 40.0% | 44.0% | 1102 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Arcane | 1 | 1.4% | 6 | 16.7% | 19.3% | 38.9% | 34.6% | 1471 | ↑ top |