EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Scry Games DTR Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 3.6% | 40 | 77.5% | 76.3% | 61.1% | 62.3% | 1462 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Suzaku | 7 | 6.3% | 58 | 62.1% | 54.3% | 57.3% | 53.4% | 1362 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Fire Rile | 19 | 17.1% | 115 | 60.9% | 53.4% | 57.2% | 53.7% | 1410 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Hybrid | 1 | 0.9% | 10 | 60.0% | 65.1% | 56.5% | 60.7% | 1325 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 3.6% | 31 | 67.7% | 57.0% | 56.5% | 53.9% | 1404 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 3 | 2.7% | 32 | 62.5% | 58.6% | 54.2% | 53.0% | 1378 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Suited | 3 | 2.7% | 21 | 54.8% | 51.0% | 53.2% | 53.2% | 1354 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Aetherwing | 1 | 0.9% | 10 | 55.0% | 64.2% | 52.0% | 57.6% | 1341 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Water Genbu | 2 | 1.8% | 18 | 50.0% | 59.8% | 49.9% | 53.7% | 1238 | — |
| 10 | Fire Aggro | 16 | 14.4% | 90 | 52.8% | 54.0% | 49.7% | 50.9% | 1245 | — |
| 11 | Fire Tonoris | 1 | 0.9% | 5 | 20.0% | 34.9% | 49.5% | 50.4% | 1088 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Kongming | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 57.1% | 43.3% | 49.5% | 45.7% | 1467 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 7.2% | 56 | 52.7% | 52.1% | 48.9% | 49.5% | 1259 | — |
| 14 | Water Allies | 2 | 1.8% | 12 | 45.8% | 39.9% | 48.0% | 46.6% | 1311 | — |
| 15 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 50.0% | 54.0% | 48.0% | 50.4% | 1348 | ↑ top |
| 16 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 50.0% | 49.2% | 47.8% | 48.3% | 1355 | ↑ top |
| 17 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 43.8% | 56.1% | 47.6% | 51.5% | 1184 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Astra Cleric | 3 | 2.7% | 23 | 45.7% | 52.6% | 46.6% | 49.3% | 1183 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Wind Exia Jin | 1 | 0.9% | 8 | 43.8% | 49.6% | 46.4% | 49.2% | 1175 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Water Slimes | 2 | 1.8% | 15 | 53.3% | 56.5% | 46.1% | 49.0% | 1263 | — |
| 21 | Fire Crux Mage | 7 | 6.3% | 53 | 43.4% | 36.6% | 46.1% | 43.0% | 1345 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Wind Razorgale | 3 | 2.7% | 20 | 37.5% | 49.6% | 45.9% | 50.6% | 1115 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Slimes | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 28.6% | 35.6% | 45.5% | 45.0% | 1269 | — |
| 24 | Fire Byakko | 2 | 1.8% | 15 | 36.7% | 27.5% | 45.3% | 41.0% | 1477 | ↑ top |
| 25 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 2 | 1.8% | 13 | 42.3% | 38.5% | 45.1% | 43.9% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 0.9% | 6 | 16.7% | 37.2% | 45.0% | 46.4% | 1041 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Silvie | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 42.9% | 49.2% | 44.4% | 45.8% | 1125 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Slimes | 3 | 2.7% | 8 | 37.5% | 42.5% | 43.8% | 45.6% | 1199 | ↓ low |
| 29 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 35.7% | 48.8% | 43.7% | 47.3% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 30 | Fire Exia | 2 | 1.8% | 12 | 41.7% | 44.0% | 43.0% | 44.8% | 1240 | — |
| 31 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 3 | 2.7% | 22 | 31.8% | 45.4% | 42.5% | 48.5% | 1177 | ↓ low |
| 32 | Wind Allies | 10 | 9.0% | 70 | 35.7% | 41.7% | 41.9% | 45.0% | 1177 | ↓ low |
| 33 | Water Astra Arisanna | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 28.6% | 38.8% | 41.8% | 42.6% | 1129 | ↓ low |
| 34 | Water Tera Kongming | 2 | 1.8% | 11 | 36.4% | 39.2% | 40.6% | 41.3% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 35 | Fire Seiryuu | 1 | 0.9% | 3 | 16.7% | 36.4% | 40.5% | 40.6% | 1147 | ↓ low |
| 36 | Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 1 | 0.9% | 4 | 0.0% | 29.2% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 37 | Water Tera Tamer | 1 | 0.9% | 7 | 14.3% | 43.4% | 38.4% | 45.6% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 38 | Water Fractal | 4 | 3.6% | 21 | 26.2% | 40.6% | 37.7% | 41.5% | 1163 | ↓ low |