← Card's village Hong Kong regional
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Card's village Hong Kong regional
decks
13
(13.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
64
25-33-6
overall winrate
43.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.8%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
44.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1259
· median 1257
· range 1100–1414
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1198
Q3 1365
1730
23% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
31% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.8% | -6.2 |
| Hidden | 8.0% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.9% | -10.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 9 | 2-6-1 | 27.8% | 34.6% | 30.4% | -9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.2% | -2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 8 | 4-2-2 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +4.3 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.5% | -4.3 |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.5% | +17.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +1.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.4% | +15.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.0% | -11.2 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.0% | -16.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.1% | +3.8 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.5% | +11.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.9% | -6.6 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sudden Steel, Cremation Ritual, Sword of Seeking. Losers more often ran: Three of Hearts, Flame Sweep, Smoke Out.
Sudden Steel
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 1.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Cremation Ritual
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 3.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Sword of Seeking
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Fast Cure
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Mnemonic Charm
Winning decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Three of Hearts
Losing decks ran 3.9
copies on average,
winning decks 2.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Sword of Shadows
Losing decks ran 0.9
copies on average,
winning decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Undying Dreams
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 1.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 53 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 33 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Three of Hearts | -0.71 | 0 | 5 | 2 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 3 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Undying Dreams | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Scatter Essence | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mnemonic Charm | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Spark Alight | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reclaim | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Freezing Steel | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Potion Infusion: Seal | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Castling Boon | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Favorable Winds | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Geldus, Terror of Dorumegia | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heighten Spellcraft | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sovereign Sanctuary | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Demolition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |