← Card's village Hong Kong regional
Water Umbra GuardianTier 1
at Card's village Hong Kong regional
decks
5
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
25
13-10-2
overall winrate
56.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.5 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1354
· median 1362
· range 1134–1499
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1198
Q3 1365
1730
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
20% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 38.7% | -10.9 |
| Hidden | 8.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.4% | -6.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.9% | +10.4 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.3% | -13.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 67.3% | +11.1 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.1% | +24.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.8% | +10.4 |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.9 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
