← Card's village Hong Kong regional
Water FractalTier 1
at Card's village Hong Kong regional
decks
4
(4.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
20
10-10-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.6%
avg ELO -0.6 per match
expected value
52.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1274
· median 1250
· range 1232–1364
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1198
Q3 1365
1730
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.9% | +13.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.0% | +2.3 |
| Hidden | 8.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.4% | +2.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.5% | -1.9 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.4% | -12.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.0% | +14.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.3% | +10.1 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
