← Card's village Hong Kong regional
Wind SeiryuuTier 1
at Card's village Hong Kong regional
decks
11
(11.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
56
27-24-5
overall winrate
52.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
55.6%
avg ELO +1.9 per match
expected value
51.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1345
· median 1326
· range 1140–1730
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
1064
Q1 1198
Q3 1365
1730
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
18% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.2% | +6.2 |
| Hidden | 8.0% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 41.9% | -4.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 8.0% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 50.5% | +0.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.0% | -3.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.6% | +3.8 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 53.9% | +1.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.3% | +10.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 61.0% | +7.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.0% | -2.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +4.6 |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 70.6% | +15.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.4% | +7.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.4% | +14.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.9% | -25.8 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.8% | +2.9 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 5 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 5 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Sunblessed Gazelle, Dream Fairy, Resolute Stand. Losers more often ran: Regal Inquisition, Forest Cake, Trained Hawk.
Sunblessed Gazelle
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Dream Fairy
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.6.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Aesan Protector
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Beseech the Winds
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Windmill Engineer
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Forest Cake
Losing decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.4.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Trained Hawk
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Innervate Agility
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 5 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 38 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regal Inquisition | -0.80 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.60 | 0 | 3 | 2 | |
| Sunblessed Gazelle | +0.60 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Bombs | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 3 | |
| Trained Hawk | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.40 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Brisk Windtrotter | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Dream Fairy | +0.40 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.40 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +0.40 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Aesan Protector | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 4 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Beseech the Winds | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Winds of Destiny | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 4 | |
| Windmill Engineer | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zephyr | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Sylph's Envelopment | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Advent of the Shenju | -0.20 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bestial Frenzy | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -0.20 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cleansing Reunion | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reclaim | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Displace | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pride's Vanguard | +0.20 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Longtail Grovesward | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |