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Water AetherwingTier 2
at Card's village Hong Kong regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 13.0% | 9 | 6-2-1 | 72.2% | 65.4% | 69.6% | +9.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.0% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Hidden | 8.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.2% | -7.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 7.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 34.9% | -11.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.8% | -2.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 5.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 36.1% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.8 |
| Water Fractal | 4.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.8 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.8% | -9.8 |
| Fire Byakko | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 64.4% | +23.1 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 1.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 1.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.6 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 8 from this event
The 8 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 21 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 21 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ranger Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Snow Fairy | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Snow White, Weiss Queen | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Languid Toadtroll | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cerulean Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bauble of Scarcity | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spellward Scepter | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Diana, Moonpiercer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reposition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |