EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at CakeTCG Online Regional.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Seiryuu | 2 | 2.0% | 24 | 68.8% | 57.0% | 59.2% | 53.9% | 1342 | — |
| 2 | Water Allies | 1 | 1.0% | 11 | 72.7% | 55.8% | 58.1% | 53.0% | 1481 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Horse and Taxes | 4 | 3.9% | 39 | 67.9% | 53.9% | 57.6% | 51.5% | 1456 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 12 | 11.8% | 89 | 56.2% | 54.3% | 56.3% | 54.1% | 1370 | — |
| 5 | Wind Shadowstrike | 8 | 7.8% | 70 | 59.3% | 54.2% | 54.4% | 52.3% | 1370 | — |
| 6 | Fire Oblation | 4 | 3.9% | 38 | 57.9% | 50.3% | 52.4% | 49.3% | 1471 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Fire Crux Mage | 8 | 7.8% | 63 | 54.8% | 49.8% | 52.2% | 49.9% | 1428 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Water Fractal | 3 | 2.9% | 23 | 50.0% | 53.3% | 52.0% | 53.0% | 1290 | ↓ low |
| 9 | Fire Aggro | 5 | 4.9% | 48 | 50.0% | 51.4% | 51.1% | 51.4% | 1358 | — |
| 10 | Fire Rile | 52 | 51.0% | 274 | 51.8% | 49.4% | 51.0% | 49.4% | 1403 | — |
| 11 | Wind Crux Mage | 2 | 2.0% | 10 | 50.0% | 47.5% | 50.7% | 50.2% | 1392 | — |
| 12 | Water Crux Mage | 1 | 1.0% | 8 | 43.8% | 46.2% | 50.3% | 48.9% | 1262 | ↓ low |
| 13 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 40.0% | 41.1% | 50.1% | 46.4% | 1367 | — |
| 14 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.0% | 11 | 54.5% | 47.0% | 49.6% | 47.4% | 1424 | ↑ top |
| 15 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 2.0% | 18 | 47.2% | 51.5% | 49.3% | 50.6% | 1412 | — |
| 16 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 2 | 2.0% | 14 | 28.6% | 44.3% | 46.9% | 50.6% | 1272 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Fire Suited | 5 | 4.9% | 38 | 36.8% | 49.9% | 45.8% | 51.9% | 1197 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Allies | 5 | 4.9% | 37 | 51.4% | 50.5% | 45.4% | 48.5% | 1387 | — |
| 19 | Water Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.0% | 11 | 36.4% | 49.8% | 44.5% | 50.0% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 4 | 3.9% | 38 | 43.4% | 48.2% | 44.5% | 48.3% | 1352 | — |
| 21 | Wind Ciel | 1 | 1.0% | 8 | 56.2% | 53.0% | 43.7% | 48.1% | 1444 | ↑ top |
| 22 | Fire Suzaku | 8 | 7.8% | 55 | 44.5% | 45.1% | 42.9% | 45.7% | 1421 | ↑ top |
| 23 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 4 | 3.9% | 28 | 39.3% | 45.6% | 42.7% | 47.3% | 1357 | — |
| 24 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.0% | 7 | 21.4% | 41.5% | 42.1% | 45.9% | 1244 | ↓ low |
| 25 | Fire Slimes | 2 | 2.0% | 11 | 36.4% | 45.6% | 41.3% | 47.7% | 1417 | ↑ top |
| 26 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 20.0% | 46.2% | 40.6% | 48.2% | 1132 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 4 | 3.9% | 40 | 35.0% | 49.6% | 40.4% | 49.2% | 1211 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Fire Exia | 1 | 1.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 36.6% | 40.0% | 45.0% | 1493 | ↑ top |
| 29 | Wind Exia | 1 | 1.0% | 9 | 38.9% | 53.9% | 38.6% | 48.9% | 1285 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Water Genbu | 1 | 1.0% | 8 | 25.0% | 41.9% | 37.9% | 44.5% | 1316 | — |
| 31 | Fire Aetherwing | 1 | 1.0% | 8 | 12.5% | 44.5% | 36.6% | 47.7% | 1069 | ↓ low |