EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at 10/12 TGCShuffle Regional .
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 3.1% | 12 | 54.2% | 59.7% | 55.8% | 58.8% | 1345 | — |
| 2 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 9 | 14.1% | 43 | 60.5% | 50.6% | 55.8% | 51.4% | 1406 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Genbu | 3 | 4.7% | 19 | 68.4% | 61.6% | 55.5% | 55.3% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Fire Crux Mage | 2 | 3.1% | 13 | 65.4% | 56.3% | 54.9% | 53.1% | 1511 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 65.8% | 53.1% | 53.2% | 1303 | — |
| 6 | Water Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 60.3% | 53.1% | 56.3% | 1426 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 59.6% | 51.6% | 54.1% | 1372 | ↑ top |
| 8 | Wind Seiryuu | 4 | 6.2% | 21 | 52.4% | 49.4% | 51.4% | 50.6% | 1348 | — |
| 9 | Water Aetherwing | 4 | 6.2% | 21 | 54.8% | 58.2% | 50.4% | 53.2% | 1185 | ↓ low |
| 10 | Wind Shadowstrike | 9 | 14.1% | 36 | 55.6% | 54.9% | 49.8% | 50.3% | 1319 | — |
| 11 | Water Fractal | 5 | 7.8% | 30 | 53.3% | 55.9% | 48.9% | 51.4% | 1301 | — |
| 12 | Wind Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 33.7% | 47.6% | 44.5% | 1533 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Water Allies | 3 | 4.7% | 18 | 47.2% | 42.2% | 47.2% | 45.4% | 1257 | — |
| 14 | Wind Byakko | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.1% | 47.1% | 46.4% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 15 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 41.7% | 43.1% | 47.1% | 46.4% | 1237 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Fire Neos | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 25.0% | 44.0% | 46.8% | 50.3% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Water Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 49.3% | 46.1% | 49.2% | 1231 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 2 | 3.1% | 10 | 40.0% | 48.9% | 45.6% | 47.8% | 1224 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Suzaku | 7 | 10.9% | 37 | 44.6% | 43.6% | 44.7% | 45.0% | 1247 | — |
| 20 | Fire Oblation | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 51.7% | 44.0% | 49.5% | 1196 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 25.0% | 39.4% | 43.8% | 46.1% | 1220 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Fire Suited | 1 | 1.6% | 4 | 37.5% | 48.4% | 43.3% | 46.6% | 1156 | ↓ low |
| 23 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 25.0% | 40.7% | 43.3% | 45.4% | 1180 | ↓ low |
| 24 | Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 36.5% | 38.9% | 42.3% | 1316 | — |
| 25 | Slimes | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 8.3% | 24.6% | 38.4% | 38.8% | 1099 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Wind Tonoris | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 16.7% | 38.0% | 34.5% | 40.6% | 1002 | ↓ low |