EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at DTR STORE CHAMPS.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fire Suited | 1 | 2.0% | 8 | 81.2% | 77.2% | 59.5% | 62.7% | 1365 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Rile | 14 | 28.0% | 75 | 66.0% | 56.1% | 59.1% | 53.8% | 1388 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Wind Seiryuu | 3 | 6.0% | 21 | 71.4% | 53.9% | 56.4% | 50.2% | 1511 | ↑ top |
| 4 | Water Tera Silvie | 1 | 2.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 58.0% | 53.8% | 56.7% | 989 | ↓ low |
| 5 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 71.4% | 48.6% | 53.7% | 49.1% | 1496 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Fire Suzaku | 4 | 8.0% | 31 | 61.3% | 60.4% | 53.5% | 54.1% | 1328 | ↑ top |
| 7 | Water Allies | 2 | 4.0% | 15 | 60.0% | 61.2% | 51.9% | 55.1% | 1306 | — |
| 8 | Fire Crux Mage | 5 | 10.0% | 31 | 51.6% | 46.6% | 50.1% | 48.0% | 1276 | — |
| 9 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 4 | 8.0% | 27 | 57.4% | 53.5% | 49.7% | 49.3% | 1412 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Water Slimes | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 45.0% | 47.1% | 50.0% | 1269 | — |
| 11 | Fire Aggro | 6 | 12.0% | 30 | 41.7% | 48.5% | 46.3% | 51.0% | 1181 | ↓ low |
| 12 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 2.0% | 7 | 35.7% | 39.5% | 45.6% | 45.0% | 1234 | — |
| 13 | Water Fractal | 2 | 4.0% | 11 | 40.9% | 45.7% | 45.3% | 47.2% | 1276 | — |
| 14 | Water Genbu | 2 | 4.0% | 14 | 35.7% | 42.1% | 41.8% | 44.7% | 1238 | — |
| 15 | Wind Allies | 5 | 10.0% | 34 | 33.8% | 44.5% | 41.4% | 46.4% | 1146 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Slimes | 2 | 4.0% | 15 | 33.3% | 45.1% | 41.2% | 45.3% | 1263 | — |
| 17 | Fire Polkhawk | 1 | 2.0% | 6 | 0.0% | 32.6% | 40.0% | 44.3% | 1041 | ↓ low |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 1 | 2.0% | 4 | 0.0% | 32.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | 1057 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 2 | 4.0% | 15 | 16.7% | 37.5% | 39.4% | 45.0% | 1106 | ↓ low |
| 20 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 6.0% | 20 | 35.0% | 40.3% | 38.8% | 42.6% | 1191 | ↓ low |