← Distorted Reflections - Regionals

EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Distorted Reflections - Regionals. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

#Archetype Decks Share Matches Winrate Adj WR EV Adj EV Avg ELO Skew
1 Wind Allies 3 4.8% 15 90.0% 73.4% 61.5% 58.5% 1414 ↑ top
2 Fire Crux Mage 1 1.6% 6 83.3% 55.5% 60.0% 54.2% 1437 ↑ top
3 Water Tera Kongming 1 1.6% 6 75.0% 60.1% 56.9% 55.1% 1265
4 Wind Lorraine 1 1.6% 7 71.4% 62.5% 55.3% 55.6% 1352 ↑ top
5 Water Tera Mage 1 1.6% 6 83.3% 57.7% 55.0% 51.3% 1446 ↑ top
6 Wind Crux Mage 1 1.6% 6 75.0% 64.6% 54.2% 53.2% 1248
7 Wind Wakeup Combo 1 1.6% 6 66.7% 59.6% 54.1% 53.8% 1269
8 Fire Umbra Guardian 1 1.6% 6 58.3% 45.9% 54.1% 50.9% 1313 ↑ top
9 Wind Shadowstrike 3 4.8% 16 59.4% 52.0% 53.5% 49.8% 1326 ↑ top
10 Fire Firebloom Burn 5 7.9% 23 52.2% 48.4% 53.1% 51.0% 1281
11 Fire Suited 4 6.3% 21 54.8% 59.5% 53.0% 54.0% 1303 ↑ top
12 Fire Crux Lorraine 1 1.6% 7 57.1% 50.8% 53.0% 51.8% 1389 ↑ top
13 Slimes 5 7.9% 21 52.4% 55.3% 52.7% 53.5% 1207
14 Water Aetherwing 2 3.2% 13 53.8% 53.9% 52.4% 51.5% 1235
15 Fire Exia 2 3.2% 6 50.0% 52.9% 52.0% 52.0% 1142 ↓ low
16 Water Astra Ranger 1 1.6% 3 33.3% 52.9% 51.7% 54.9% 1187 ↓ low
17 Wind Astra Cleric 1 1.6% 6 50.0% 41.8% 51.7% 48.4% 1411 ↑ top
18 Wind Razorgale 2 3.2% 8 37.5% 51.7% 51.7% 53.9% 1171 ↓ low
19 Water Fractal 3 4.8% 16 56.2% 43.0% 48.9% 45.4% 1339 ↑ top
20 Fire Suzaku 7 11.1% 33 47.0% 52.4% 47.3% 49.4% 1195 ↓ low
21 Fire Umbra Ciel 1 1.6% 3 33.3% 41.9% 47.1% 46.3% 1182 ↓ low
22 Wind Luxem Assassin 1 1.6% 6 33.3% 39.9% 46.2% 46.2% 1225
23 Wind Seiryuu 1 1.6% 7 42.9% 58.0% 46.0% 49.9% 1224
24 Fire Aggro 2 3.2% 11 54.5% 51.9% 45.2% 44.9% 1213
25 Fire Luxem Assassin 1 1.6% 6 33.3% 46.4% 43.1% 46.2% 1133 ↓ low
26 Water Astra Cleric 2 3.2% 9 11.1% 34.8% 42.7% 46.3% 1062 ↓ low
27 Wind Neos 2 3.2% 8 31.2% 38.2% 42.7% 43.5% 1167 ↓ low
28 Water Genbu 2 3.2% 6 8.3% 28.1% 42.5% 43.4% 1219
29 Fire Arcane 2 3.2% 6 16.7% 35.3% 40.9% 42.6% 1134 ↓ low
30 Fire Umbra Ranger 3 4.8% 11 13.6% 28.2% 40.7% 42.6% 1148 ↓ low
31 Water Ravishing Mill 1 1.6% 3 0.0% 29.6% 40.0% 40.1% 1268
32 Water Dawn of Ashes 1 1.6% 3 0.0% 29.4% 34.8% 35.7% 1153 ↓ low