← Distorted Reflections - Regionals
EV ranking
How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Distorted Reflections - Regionals.
EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O),
renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse
matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5.
Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead --
same math, skill-controlled.
Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches)
— read them as rough estimates.
| # | Archetype | Decks | Share | Matches | Winrate | Adj WR | EV | Adj EV | Avg ELO | Skew |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wind Allies | 3 | 4.8% | 15 | 90.0% | 73.4% | 61.5% | 58.5% | 1414 | ↑ top |
| 2 | Fire Crux Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 83.3% | 55.5% | 60.0% | 54.2% | 1437 | ↑ top |
| 3 | Water Tera Kongming | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 60.1% | 56.9% | 55.1% | 1265 | — |
| 4 | Wind Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 71.4% | 62.5% | 55.3% | 55.6% | 1352 | ↑ top |
| 5 | Water Tera Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 83.3% | 57.7% | 55.0% | 51.3% | 1446 | ↑ top |
| 6 | Wind Crux Mage | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 75.0% | 64.6% | 54.2% | 53.2% | 1248 | — |
| 7 | Wind Wakeup Combo | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 66.7% | 59.6% | 54.1% | 53.8% | 1269 | — |
| 8 | Fire Umbra Guardian | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 58.3% | 45.9% | 54.1% | 50.9% | 1313 | ↑ top |
| 9 | Wind Shadowstrike | 3 | 4.8% | 16 | 59.4% | 52.0% | 53.5% | 49.8% | 1326 | ↑ top |
| 10 | Fire Firebloom Burn | 5 | 7.9% | 23 | 52.2% | 48.4% | 53.1% | 51.0% | 1281 | — |
| 11 | Fire Suited | 4 | 6.3% | 21 | 54.8% | 59.5% | 53.0% | 54.0% | 1303 | ↑ top |
| 12 | Fire Crux Lorraine | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 57.1% | 50.8% | 53.0% | 51.8% | 1389 | ↑ top |
| 13 | Slimes | 5 | 7.9% | 21 | 52.4% | 55.3% | 52.7% | 53.5% | 1207 | — |
| 14 | Water Aetherwing | 2 | 3.2% | 13 | 53.8% | 53.9% | 52.4% | 51.5% | 1235 | — |
| 15 | Fire Exia | 2 | 3.2% | 6 | 50.0% | 52.9% | 52.0% | 52.0% | 1142 | ↓ low |
| 16 | Water Astra Ranger | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 52.9% | 51.7% | 54.9% | 1187 | ↓ low |
| 17 | Wind Astra Cleric | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 50.0% | 41.8% | 51.7% | 48.4% | 1411 | ↑ top |
| 18 | Wind Razorgale | 2 | 3.2% | 8 | 37.5% | 51.7% | 51.7% | 53.9% | 1171 | ↓ low |
| 19 | Water Fractal | 3 | 4.8% | 16 | 56.2% | 43.0% | 48.9% | 45.4% | 1339 | ↑ top |
| 20 | Fire Suzaku | 7 | 11.1% | 33 | 47.0% | 52.4% | 47.3% | 49.4% | 1195 | ↓ low |
| 21 | Fire Umbra Ciel | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 33.3% | 41.9% | 47.1% | 46.3% | 1182 | ↓ low |
| 22 | Wind Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 39.9% | 46.2% | 46.2% | 1225 | — |
| 23 | Wind Seiryuu | 1 | 1.6% | 7 | 42.9% | 58.0% | 46.0% | 49.9% | 1224 | — |
| 24 | Fire Aggro | 2 | 3.2% | 11 | 54.5% | 51.9% | 45.2% | 44.9% | 1213 | — |
| 25 | Fire Luxem Assassin | 1 | 1.6% | 6 | 33.3% | 46.4% | 43.1% | 46.2% | 1133 | ↓ low |
| 26 | Water Astra Cleric | 2 | 3.2% | 9 | 11.1% | 34.8% | 42.7% | 46.3% | 1062 | ↓ low |
| 27 | Wind Neos | 2 | 3.2% | 8 | 31.2% | 38.2% | 42.7% | 43.5% | 1167 | ↓ low |
| 28 | Water Genbu | 2 | 3.2% | 6 | 8.3% | 28.1% | 42.5% | 43.4% | 1219 | — |
| 29 | Fire Arcane | 2 | 3.2% | 6 | 16.7% | 35.3% | 40.9% | 42.6% | 1134 | ↓ low |
| 30 | Fire Umbra Ranger | 3 | 4.8% | 11 | 13.6% | 28.2% | 40.7% | 42.6% | 1148 | ↓ low |
| 31 | Water Ravishing Mill | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.6% | 40.0% | 40.1% | 1268 | — |
| 32 | Water Dawn of Ashes | 1 | 1.6% | 3 | 0.0% | 29.4% | 34.8% | 35.7% | 1153 | ↓ low |