← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Fire AggroTier 2
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 46.8% | -1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | -2.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -0.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 30.7% | -11.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.7% | -12.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 4 | 0-3-1 | 12.5% | 31.2% | 33.9% | -10.3 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 70.9% | +20.1 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.8% | +6.5 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.3% | +6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.8% | +22.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.9% | +6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.5 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.5% | +20.0 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Huaji of Heaven's Rise | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lurid Dreaming | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sun Ce, Weaponsmaster | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Bowman | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |