← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Water AetherwingTier 1
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Pilot Skill ↑ top
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 44.4% | -2.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.3% | +12.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.3% | -10.3 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 65.5% | +8.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 28.9% | -11.2 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 62.4% | +9.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.6% | +5.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.7% | -3.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.9% | -17.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.9% | -13.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.9% | +10.5 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.1% | +8.8 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.4 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 57.6% | +7.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.4 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.7% | +8.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 14 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 14 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prudent Nock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chained Charge | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sudden Snow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Dissuading Aether | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Aetheric Reforging | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backstep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mana's Cascade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reposition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |