← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Water Crux MageTier 2
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
decks
2
(1.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
14
6-5-3
overall winrate
53.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.2%
avg ELO -0.7 per match
expected value
52.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1297
· median 1297
· range 1196–1399
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1219
Q3 1430
1619
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 39.9% | -6.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.8% | +10.9 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.4% | -25.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.9 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
