← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
decks
11
(7.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
69
32-33-4
overall winrate
49.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.5%
avg ELO -0.5 per match
expected value
50.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1391
· median 1401
· range 999–1563
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1219
Q3 1430
1619
45% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
9% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +1.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 8 | 4-4-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.4% | +2.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 12 | 6-5-1 | 54.2% | 53.1% | 53.1% | +1.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 8 | 1-5-2 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 36.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 65.6% | +10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.5% | -5.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.7% | +10.3 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 37.1% | -8.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -0.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 55.0% | +2.9 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.2 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.7% | +7.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.8% | -13.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.1% | -22.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.7% | -8.0 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.8% | -3.1 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incarnate Majesty, Nullifying Lantern, Library Witch. Losers more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Smoke Out, Flame Sweep.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Nullifying Lantern
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Library Witch
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Evercurrent Raider
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 1.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Rending Flames
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Flame-Rune Swordsman
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 16 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |