← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Water Umbra GuardianTier 2
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 5 | 1-3-1 | 30.0% | 38.9% | 45.6% | -2.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.1% | -2.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.6% | -9.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.1% | -9.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.3% | +3.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.0% | -6.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.3% | -9.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 15 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 15 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dredging Streams | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Revitalizing Cleanse | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tide Diviner | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavy Swing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mire Reparation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Strategem of Myriad Ice | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Storm of Thorns | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |