← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
decks
18
(12.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
117
60-43-14
overall winrate
57.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.0%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1363
· median 1356
· range 1137–1577
(18 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1219
Q3 1430
1619
39% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
22% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 53.2% | +1.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.8% | -1.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 12 | 8-4-0 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 66.9% | +7.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 10 | 4-4-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 38.8% | -5.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 11 | 3-6-2 | 36.4% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -4.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 10 | 4-4-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.9% | -3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 55.6% | +2.8 |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 4 | 2-1-1 | 62.5% | 56.2% | 60.7% | +6.9 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 5 | 3-1-1 | 70.0% | 61.1% | 54.4% | +2.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 47.6% | -1.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 3 | 2-0-1 | 83.3% | 64.3% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.7% | -14.9 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 47.9% | -1.6 |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.1% | +6.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.1% | -2.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 61.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.4% | +8.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +2.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.0% | -2.9 |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.0% | +4.8 |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.1% | -7.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.0 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 58.6% | +8.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
Decklists · 18 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Incapacitate, Hasty Messenger, Fluffy Shopkeep. Losers more often ran: Immolation Trap, Honorable Vanguard, Evercurrent Raider.
Incapacitate
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Hasty Messenger
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
losing decks 3.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Crux Sight
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Staggering Strike
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Drawn Blade
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Immolation Trap
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Honorable Vanguard
Losing decks ran 1.2
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.8.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Morgan, Soul Guide
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 0.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Immolation Trap | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.33 | 1 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.33 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Crux Sight | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Dungeon Guide | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Four of Spades | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Hone by Fire | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Banner Knight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ensoul | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Votive Runeblade | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Duplicitous Replication | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |