← GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
Water AlliesTier 2
at GRAND ARCHIVE MELAKA REGIONAL OCTOBER 26
decks
6
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
37
13-18-6
overall winrate
43.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
40.4%
avg ELO -3.4 per match
expected value
46.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1340
· median 1359
· range 1181–1442
(6 pilots with an ELO rating)
999
Q1 1219
Q3 1430
1619
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
17% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 39.3% | -6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 7.9% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 66.1% | +10.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 7.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 62.9% | +8.2 |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.9% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 23.8% | -16.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.9% | 5 | 0-4-1 | 10.0% | 27.8% | 28.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.2% | 3 | 1-0-2 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 5.0% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 37.6% | -9.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | -13.3 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.1% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suited | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.5% | +8.8 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.8 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Guo Jia | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Wind Overlord | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.2 |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 6 from this event
The 6 public Water Allies decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
