Fire ArcaneTier 3
at Tainan Regional
decks
2
(1.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
15
4-9-2
overall winrate
33.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.5 per match
expected value
46.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.7%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1309
· median 1309
· range 1095–1523
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1226
Q3 1393
1694
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +13.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.9% | -17.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.4% | -8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.1% | -19.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.3% | +0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.6% | -5.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.1% | +6.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.3% | +21.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
