Fire SuzakuTier 2
at Tainan Regional
decks
13
(10.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
74
35-38-1
overall winrate
48.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.1%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
47.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1225
· median 1212
· range 1126–1419
(13 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1226
Q3 1393
1694
8% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
62% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 8 | 1-7-0 | 12.5% | 25.0% | 29.7% | -9.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -2.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.9% | +8.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 5 | 5-0-0 | 100.0% | 77.8% | 78.4% | +16.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 51.5% | +1.1 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.9% | +11.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 43.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.6% | -5.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.5% | -12.0 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 68.3% | +17.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 47.3% | -2.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 53.2% | +2.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +11.9 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.5 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 38.4% | -8.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 70.7% | +11.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -10.0 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.6 |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.7% | +5.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.3% | -5.9 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
Decklists · 13 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Resolute Stand, Spark Alight, Expose Darkness. Losers more often ran: Arthur, Young Heir, Shatter the Brittle, Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 3.3
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Expose Darkness
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Liminal Guide
Winning decks ran 3.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Three of Hearts
Winning decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
losing decks 1.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Arthur, Young Heir
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Shatter the Brittle
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Dire Requiem
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Show all 55 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 35 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.57 | 5 | 1 | 1 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 3 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.43 | 3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | -0.43 | 1 | 4 | 2 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Demolition | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 5 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Suzaku's Command | +0.29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| Cinder Geyser | +0.29 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Broken Promises | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 1 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
| Fiery Interference | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Ignis Deus | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Under Fire | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grande Aiguille | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Da Qiao, Cinderbinder | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Pelagic Fatestone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expel the Departed | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spontaneous Combustion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |