Fire SuitedTier 2
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 29.6% | -13.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 52.7% | +2.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.1% | -1.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.5% | +12.0 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +17.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.2% | -18.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.5 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.1% | +11.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 30 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Five of Spades | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rouge, Ace of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tristan, Underhanded | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raised Slash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mortal Ambition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Inspiring Call | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ornamental Greatsword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verita, Queen of Hearts | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wonderland's Reign | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Noire, Ace of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Two of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Four of Spades | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deadly Opportunist | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Straight Flare | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Trump Set | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |