Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 8 | 7-1-0 | 87.5% | 75.0% | 70.3% | +9.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 9 | 5-4-0 | 55.6% | 53.8% | 49.5% | -0.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 49.5% | -0.3 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -3.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 8 | 3-4-1 | 43.8% | 45.8% | 48.8% | -0.6 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 5 | 2-2-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.4 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.2% | +6.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.6% | -10.0 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 5 | 4-1-0 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 55.4% | +3.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 6 | 4-1-1 | 75.0% | 65.0% | 58.3% | +4.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 46.9% | -2.3 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 6 | 3-3-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.9% | +3.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.5% | +2.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 70.4% | +13.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.2% | -4.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.2% | +7.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.2% | -1.4 |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.8% | +5.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.6 |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.1% | -7.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
Decklists · 15 from this event
The 15 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Hone by Fire, Intensified Pyre, Drawn Blade. Losers more often ran: Heavenly Guide, Smoke Out, Devastating Blow.
Show all 32 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Incapacitate | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |