Fire Crux MageTier 2
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 44.6% | -3.1 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +16.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.2 |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 43.6% | -6.2 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.6% | +20.1 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.4% | -8.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +12.9 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 3 | 0-2-1 | 16.7% | 35.7% | 41.7% | -6.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.3% | +6.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 31 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 31 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crux Sight | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Yuan Shao, Crown General | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Escape the Wreckage | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mystic Purifier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Reprogram | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Refracting Missile | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |