Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Tainan Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 6 | 1-4-1 | 25.0% | 35.0% | 41.7% | -4.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 57.4% | +5.5 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 4.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.4% | +12.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 35.6% | -13.8 |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.0% | -6.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vermilion Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scathing Seminary | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tether in Flames | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Insight | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |