Water FractalTier 2
at Tainan Regional
decks
5
(4.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
12-17-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
41.5%
avg ELO -3.1 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1257
· median 1244
· range 807–1568
(5 pilots with an ELO rating)
807
Q1 1226
Q3 1393
1694
40% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
40% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 12.6% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 40.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.1% | -11.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.1% | 5 | 2-3-0 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 43.2% | -3.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 5.9% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 58.8% | +6.6 |
| Water Genbu | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.3% | -4.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 39.0% | -10.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.6% | -12.8 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.1% | -14.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -5.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.4% | +10.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Beast | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.6 |
Decklists · 5 from this event
The 5 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
