EV ranking

How well each archetype is positioned against the field at Weatherlight PTM store championship. EV(D) = sum over opponents O of share(O) · winrate(D, O), renormalized to exclude the mirror, with a Beta(2, 2) shrinkage so sparse matchups pull toward 50%. Draws count as 0.5. Adj WR / Adj EV use ELO-derived matchup winrates instead -- same math, skill-controlled. Faded figures come from a small sample (under 10 matches) — read them as rough estimates.

2nd

Fire Arcane

58.0%

2.8% share · 8 matches

5.6% share · 9 matches

3rd

Wind Seiryuu

57.1%

16.7% share · 25 matches

↑ top

#	Archetype	Decks	Share	Matches	Winrate	Adj WR	EV	Adj EV	Avg ELO	Skew
1	Water Aetherwing	2	5.6%	9	77.8%	81.0%	60.2%	66.1%	1337	—
2	Fire Arcane	1	2.8%	8	75.0%	69.0%	58.0%	58.5%	1469	↑ top
3	Wind Seiryuu	6	16.7%	25	60.0%	50.4%	57.1%	53.8%	1411	↑ top
4	Wind Umbra Ranger	1	2.8%	6	66.7%	45.2%	54.7%	50.3%	1522	↑ top
5	Fire Neos	1	2.8%	3	33.3%	50.3%	52.0%	54.0%	1047	↓ low
6	Fire Luxem Assassin	1	2.8%	5	60.0%	51.1%	50.3%	48.2%	1428	↑ top
7	Fire Suited	2	5.6%	11	45.5%	48.1%	49.6%	49.9%	1275	—
8	Wind Shadowstrike	1	2.8%	5	50.0%	45.7%	49.4%	47.6%	1304	—
9	Fire Aggro	6	16.7%	25	52.0%	55.6%	49.1%	50.7%	1256	↓ low
10	Water Fractal	2	5.6%	11	54.5%	53.2%	49.0%	49.9%	1396	↑ top
11	Fire Crux Mage	1	2.8%	5	40.0%	45.5%	48.2%	47.4%	1201	↓ low
12	Water Umbra Guardian	2	5.6%	10	35.0%	49.2%	47.7%	50.4%	1263	↓ low
13	Wind Wakeup Combo	3	8.3%	18	52.8%	43.9%	45.7%	43.4%	1425	↑ top
14	Fire Aetherwing	1	2.8%	5	40.0%	51.0%	45.3%	48.6%	1237	↓ low
15	Fire Umbra Guardian	2	5.6%	10	45.0%	48.1%	44.7%	45.8%	1366	—
16	Wind Allies	1	2.8%	5	40.0%	36.8%	43.3%	40.2%	1472	↑ top
17	Wind Astra Cleric	1	2.8%	5	30.0%	43.8%	43.3%	44.4%	1207	↓ low
18	Fire Firebloom Burn	2	5.6%	11	31.8%	43.9%	42.0%	45.5%	1216	↓ low
19	Water Zander	1	2.8%	5	0.0%	18.8%	40.0%	39.5%	1264	↓ low