← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Fire Crux LorraineTier 2
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
11
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
72
30-36-6
overall winrate
45.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.4%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
48.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
48.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1239
· median 1260
· range 1085–1410
(11 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
18% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
36% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.6% | +0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 12 | 7-3-2 | 66.7% | 62.5% | 62.5% | +5.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.0% | -1.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.9% | -3.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 53.4% | +1.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 7 | 3-2-2 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 49.4% | -0.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.0% | -6.7 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 36.9% | -8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 38.7% | -10.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.0% | +20.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.5% | -8.8 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.5% | -18.8 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 38.5% | -6.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.8% | -7.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.9% | -6.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.0 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.6% | -11.9 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -22.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.1 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
The 11 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Varuckan Acolyte, Varuck, Smoldering Spire, Reduce to Ash. Losers more often ran: Incapacitate, Sword of Seeking, Flame Sweep.
Varuckan Acolyte
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Varuck, Smoldering Spire
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Palvor Sword
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Undying Dreams
Winning decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
losing decks 2.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Winning decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Incapacitate
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Sword of Seeking
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Flame Sweep
Losing decks ran 3.5
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Spirit Blade: Ascension
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 48 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 32 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Ghosts of Pendragon | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Devastating Blow | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Flame Sweep | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Prismatic Edge | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Lorraine, Crux Knight | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Spirit Ruler | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peer Beyond | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Overlapping Visages | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Immolation Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Dispersion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |