← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Water OverlordTier 3
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
1
(0.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
1-4-3
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.4%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
44.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1172
· median 1172
· range 1172–1172
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.0% | -7.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | -0.1 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.5% | -4.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Overlord decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
