← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Fire Crux MageTier 2
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
24
(9.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
160
61-69-30
overall winrate
47.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
47.6%
avg ELO -0.8 per match
expected value
47.6%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1271
· median 1274
· range 1091–1563
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
21% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 13 | 4-7-2 | 38.5% | 41.2% | 37.0% | -5.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 13 | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 26.5% | 32.6% | -7.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 12 | 5-5-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.9% | +0.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 12 | 6-4-2 | 58.3% | 56.2% | 52.0% | +0.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 13 | 6-3-4 | 61.5% | 58.8% | 54.2% | +1.8 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 52.8% | +1.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 7 | 5-0-2 | 85.7% | 72.7% | 67.9% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 6 | 2-2-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -0.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 13 | 2-8-3 | 26.9% | 32.4% | 44.8% | -2.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 8 | 3-5-0 | 37.5% | 41.7% | 42.4% | -3.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 32.9% | -9.8 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 10 | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 59.1% | +4.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 7 | 1-4-2 | 28.6% | 36.4% | 32.2% | -8.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.4% | +13.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.8% | -7.0 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.5% | -7.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 46.2% | -2.2 |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.7 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 37.6% | -9.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 52.8% | +2.7 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 61.2% | +10.7 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 63.4% | +21.4 |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.7% | -2.1 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 58.0% | +7.7 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.6% | -15.0 |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.7% | +13.2 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.1 |
Decklists · 24 from this event
The 24 public Fire Crux Mage decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 7 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 7 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin, Sword of Shadows, Spirit of Fire. Losers more often ran: Cremation Ritual, Nimue, Cursed Touch, Smoke Out.
Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.7.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Sword of Shadows
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Spirit of Fire
Winning decks ran 1.0
copy on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Incarnate Majesty
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Flared Iridescence
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.4.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 2.
Undeniable Truth
Winning decks ran 1.6
copies on average,
losing decks 0.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
winning decks 1.6.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Nimue, Cursed Touch
Losing decks ran 1.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.9.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 1.1
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 4.
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
winning decks 2.0.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 1.
Fragmented Spirit of Fire
Losing decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Crux Sight
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 7 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 70 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 50 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cremation Ritual | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 1 | |
| Nimue, Cursed Touch | -0.57 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.43 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Sword of Shadows | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Incarnate Majesty | +0.43 | 5 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flared Iridescence | +0.43 | 4 | 1 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.29 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crux Sight | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.29 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 3 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.29 | 0 | 2 | 5 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.29 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Sword of Seeking | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.14 | 3 | 4 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Inert Sword | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.14 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Library Witch | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 2 | |
| Fireball | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 6 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +0.14 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Prismatic Edge | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.14 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.14 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sacred Engulfment | +0.14 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Excalibur, Reflected Edge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Duality's Convergence | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reveal the Hidden | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.14 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Return to the Archive | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fabled Emerald Fatestone | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Sudden Steel | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Tome of Sorcery | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Waited Accord | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Suffocating Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Infernal Vessel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignite the Soul | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |