← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Fire SuzakuTier 2
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
16
(6.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
111
44-59-8
overall winrate
43.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.3%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
44.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1218
· median 1174
· range 1111–1376
(16 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
12% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
44% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 12 | 4-6-2 | 41.7% | 43.8% | 48.0% | -0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | +0.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 45.0% | -3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 40.5% | -6.1 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 40.6% | -4.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 10 | 3-7-0 | 30.0% | 35.7% | 36.2% | -6.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 6 | 1-5-0 | 16.7% | 30.0% | 38.2% | -6.3 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 46.6% | -1.8 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 43.1% | -6.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 6 | 2-3-1 | 41.7% | 45.0% | 43.6% | -3.4 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 7 | 2-4-1 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 43.1% | -3.5 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +8.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.3 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.6% | +4.2 |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.1 |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 26.3% | -15.2 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 60.4% | +9.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.1 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.6% | +0.6 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 47.9% | -2.0 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 48.3% | -1.2 |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 60.6% | +10.1 |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.1 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.6% | +10.5 |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 16 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 6 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 6 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Cinder Geyser, Flamewreath Call, Spark Alight. Losers more often ran: Guo Jia, Blessed Scion, Suzaku's Command, Liminal Guide.
Cinder Geyser
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Flamewreath Call
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 2.
Spark Alight
Winning decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
losing decks 2.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Viridian Protective Trinket
Winning decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
losing decks 0.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 3.
Resolute Stand
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Expose Darkness
Winning decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
losing decks 1.0.
Of 6 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Suzaku's Command
Losing decks ran 3.7
copies on average,
winning decks 3.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 0.
Liminal Guide
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Smoke Out
Losing decks ran 2.8
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Stolen Chance
Losing decks ran 0.5
copies on average,
winning decks 0.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Fluffy Shopkeep
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 6 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 30 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cinder Geyser | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.67 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| Spark Alight | +0.50 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Blessed Scion | -0.50 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.33 | 0 | 2 | 4 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| Shatter the Brittle | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Suzaku's Command | -0.33 | 2 | 4 | 0 | |
| Ignite Fate | +0.33 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| Resolute Stand | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Expose Darkness | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Liminal Guide | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +0.17 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| Stolen Chance | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Coiled Fatestone | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Demolition | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Restorative Flame | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.17 | 1 | 0 | 5 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Forest Cake | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Guo Jia, Heaven's Favored | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lavasoul Tiger | -0.17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flamewing Fowl | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Focused Flames | -0.17 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Orb of Sealing | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |