← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Fire OblationTier 1
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
12
(4.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
84
50-27-7
overall winrate
63.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
62.9%
avg ELO +4.3 per match
expected value
55.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
56.1%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1310
· median 1288
· range 1190–1584
(12 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 47.2% | -1.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 10 | 5-5-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 10 | 6-3-1 | 65.0% | 60.7% | 57.4% | +3.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 60.3% | +6.6 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 10 | 7-3-0 | 70.0% | 64.3% | 63.8% | +6.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 64.8% | +9.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 5 | 2-1-2 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 62.9% | +7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 59.0% | +6.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 58.5% | +5.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.6 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.8% | +9.3 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 64.1% | +10.5 |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.3 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 65.6% | +24.9 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.3% | -13.9 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.2% | -1.3 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.8% | +14.1 |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.5% | -15.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.3% | -21.8 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 44.6% | -5.2 |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 4 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 4 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Turbo Charge, Fiery Interference. Losers more often ran: Infernal Vessel, Crystallized Destiny, Topsy Decree.
Stalwart Shieldmate
Winning decks ran 4.0
copies on average,
losing decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Turbo Charge
Winning decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.8.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Fiery Interference
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Flamewreath Call
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Gentle Respite
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 1.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Spirit of Serene Fire
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Infernal Vessel
Losing decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
winning decks 0.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Crystallized Destiny
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 1.
Topsy Decree
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Cremation Ritual
Losing decks ran 3.8
copies on average,
winning decks 3.5.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Regal Inquisition
Losing decks ran 2.5
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Library Witch
Losing decks ran 3.0
copies on average,
winning decks 3.2.
Of 4 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 1.
Show all 50 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 34 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stalwart Shieldmate | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Infernal Vessel | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -0.75 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Fiery Interference | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flamewreath Call | +0.75 | 3 | 0 | 1 | |
| Feu Awakening | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
| Gentle Respite | +0.50 | 3 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
| Abnegation | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Topsy Decree | -0.50 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Under Fire | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Reflected Blight | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Annul Spell | +0.50 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spurn to Ash | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Lost Providence | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Chalice of Blood | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Library Witch | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +0.25 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.25 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.25 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | -0.25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |