← TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at TripleTactics TCG PTM Regionals 2026
decks
9
(3.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
68
35-27-6
overall winrate
55.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.9%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
51.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1205
· median 1206
· range 1094–1505
(9 pilots with an ELO rating)
949
Q1 1172
Q3 1352
1685
11% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
44% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 8 | 5-3-0 | 62.5% | 58.3% | 57.6% | +3.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 58.5% | +4.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 7 | 3-4-0 | 42.9% | 45.5% | 47.3% | -1.4 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -0.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 6 | 3-2-1 | 58.3% | 55.0% | 56.4% | +3.4 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.3% | +4.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.7% | +1.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.8% | +1.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.9 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.0% | -4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.2% | +2.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 59.5% | +9.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.0% | +10.6 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.7% | -18.6 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.2% | -6.5 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.8% | -13.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.9% | +12.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +2.6 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +9.9 |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.6% | +15.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.7 |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.7% | -18.0 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Fire Firebloom Burn decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
