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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 13 | 8-2-3 | 73.1% | 67.6% | 55.2% | +2.2 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 54.5% | +4.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 10 | 5-3-2 | 60.0% | 57.1% | 57.2% | +3.2 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 9 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -3.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.9% | +6.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 38.7% | -7.3 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -5.4 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 4.9% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.2% | +1.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 61.3% | +10.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 55.0% | +4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 36.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 48.8% | -0.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.3% | +14.9 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 46.2% | -3.6 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.4% | -18.8 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.5% | +4.1 |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.6% | +12.1 |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.4% | +13.4 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 11 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annul Spell | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wool Brook | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Thieving Cut | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Juggle Knives | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ducal Seal | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Insignia of the Corhazi | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vanish from Sight | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Waited Accord | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Scry the Skies | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Oneiric Key | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |