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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.7% | 7 | 0-5-2 | 14.3% | 27.3% | 32.1% | -9.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 8.9% | 9 | 7-1-1 | 83.3% | 73.1% | 68.0% | +8.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.5% | 7 | 1-3-3 | 35.7% | 40.9% | 40.4% | -4.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.9% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +5.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.5% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 61.8% | +6.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 5.7% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 4.9% | 5 | 1-2-2 | 40.0% | 44.4% | 37.1% | -7.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 63.1% | +8.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.6% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.2% | -1.2 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 56.0% | +5.7 |
| Water Genbu | 2.8% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.0% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 44.1% | -4.4 |
| Water Allies | 2.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.1% | +0.1 |
| Fire Exia | 1.6% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 67.3% | +12.9 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.8% | -21.2 |
| Water Chess | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.4% | -3.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Fire Suited | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.1 |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Triskit | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Overlord | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 0.4% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 48.8% | -1.1 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 12 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 42 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 42 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheshire Cat, Impish Grin | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Feu Awakening | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Peaceful Reunion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Accursed Strength | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ombreux Chevalier | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Lost Providence | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Inert Sword | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Unmake Duality | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fast Cure | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devouring Malice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Morgan, Soul Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Serene Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Abnegation | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Carter, Synthetic Reaper | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tithe Proclamation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Exorcise Curses | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Devastating Blow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Beguiling Coup | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grim Pastiche | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |