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Fire Crux LorraineTier 1
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
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Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 69.5% | +12.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.8% | +7.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.2% | -10.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.1% | -4.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 46.6% | -3.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.3 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 42.7% | -7.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.3% | +5.2 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.9% | -22.5 |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Crux Lorraine decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 28 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 28 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resolute Stand | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Palvor Sword | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Shadows | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fluffy Shopkeep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Gentle Respite | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Stalwart Shieldmate | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Spirit's Blessing | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Acolyte | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit Blade: Ascension | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Immolation Trap | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tempered Steel | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Library Witch | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Varuck, Smoldering Spire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 |