← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Water AetherwingTier 1
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
decks
3
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-5-5
overall winrate
64.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.6%
avg ELO +5.2 per match
expected value
52.7%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1375
· median 1381
· range 1226–1516
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1392
1656
33% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.7% | +1.1 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.4% | +11.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 2 | 0-0-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +5.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.6 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.3% | -25.2 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.6% | +3.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.4% | +10.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Aetherwing decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
