← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Water Ravishing MillTier 2
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
decks
3
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
18
4-11-3
overall winrate
30.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.8%
avg ELO -1.2 per match
expected value
43.1%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
46.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1130
· median 1162
· range 1065–1164
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1392
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.3% | -12.3 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.5% | +0.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.9% | -11.6 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 53.4% | +3.2 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 41.4% | -8.3 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +7.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.8 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.3% | -7.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.2% | +10.0 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.4% | +15.0 |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.9% | -5.0 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.6% | +4.4 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Ravishing Mill decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
