← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Water Umbra GuardianTier 3
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
7
3-4-0
overall winrate
42.9%
ELO-adjusted winrate
45.0%
avg ELO -2.5 per match
expected value
47.8%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
47.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1311
· median 1311
· range 1311–1311
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1392
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.2 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.5 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.4 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +14.0 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
