← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Fire Crux MerlinTier 3
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
decks
1
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
35.2%
avg ELO -9.5 per match
expected value
42.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1269
· median 1269
· range 1269–1269
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1218
Q3 1392
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 13.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.9% | -16.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.5% | -21.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.9% | +9.4 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.0% | -9.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Crux Merlin decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
