← Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Water FractalTier 2
at Gaming Giant PTM Virginia Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.5% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.3% | -5.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 53.4% | +2.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 4.5% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 30.5% | -12.5 |
| Fire Slimes | 4.5% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 54.4% | +2.8 |
| Water Aetherwing | 4.5% | 4 | 1-1-2 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.5% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.3% | +10.0 |
| Water Genbu | 4.5% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 56.7% | +6.4 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.7% | +12.3 |
| Wind Arcane | 4.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 3.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.3% | +8.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 3.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.8% | -16.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.6% | +4.9 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 30.9% | -18.3 |
| Wind Allies | 3.0% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 32.5% | -13.0 |
| Fire Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.1% | +16.2 |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.1% | +3.3 |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.3% | -2.6 |
| Fire Umbra Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.2 |
| Water Chess | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.4 |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Alice | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.7% | +10.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.5% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.2% | -15.1 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.5% | -0.5 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 1.5% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 22.8% | -20.3 |
Decklists · 9 from this event
The 9 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Frostbind.
No cards correlated with losing.
Show all 25 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 24 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 3 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Prismspire Scepter | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Frostsworn Paladin | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Spalling Cleanse | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| Portentous Tanggu | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Song of Frost | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Crystalline Mirror | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Zhang Jiao, Way of Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Unmake Duality | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Snow | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Throne-Keeper Bullfrog | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Chill to the Bone | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |