← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Fire AggroTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 8 | 2-5-1 | 31.2% | 37.5% | 35.3% | -7.0 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 8 | 2-6-0 | 25.0% | 33.3% | 41.4% | -4.1 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.3% | +18.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.7% | -0.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.9% | +19.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.2% | -9.3 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.2% | -12.6 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 74.2% | +23.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.9 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 39.9% | -9.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.7% | -21.3 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.4% | +8.6 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.3% | +15.7 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.3% | -18.7 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.2% | -6.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.5 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.4% | +2.3 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.8% | +19.0 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.0% | +19.2 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.5% | +16.8 |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.9% | +12.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.3 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.4% | +19.8 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 7 from this event
The 7 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 39 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 39 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Molten Echo | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Merlin, Memorite Vassal | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unbroken Mustang | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Undeniable Truth | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Volda, Smolder's Spite | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Woodland Squirrels | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastsoul Visage | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cinder Geyser | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Beastbond Boots | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Three of Hearts | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tonoris, Lone Mercenary | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flickering Afterglow | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Mote Sear | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Exploit Vulnerability | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bulwark Sword | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Restorative Flame | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Protect Her At All Costs | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |