← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
24
(13.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
162
69-75-18
overall winrate
48.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
48.8%
avg ELO -0.4 per match
expected value
49.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1293
· median 1261
· range 1129–1558
(24 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
17% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
33% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 27 | 9-11-7 | 46.3% | 46.8% | 55.4% | +2.0 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 11 | 4-6-1 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 41.3% | -3.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 55.7% | +3.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 8 | 5-2-1 | 68.8% | 62.5% | 64.7% | +7.0 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 11 | 3-5-3 | 40.9% | 43.3% | 38.9% | -4.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 13 | 2-10-1 | 19.2% | 26.5% | 29.6% | -8.5 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 10 | 5-4-1 | 55.0% | 53.6% | 51.3% | +0.6 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.5% | +13.9 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 7 | 7-0-0 | 100.0% | 81.8% | 80.3% | +15.2 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 41.4% | -5.0 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.0% | -0.7 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 6 | 4-2-0 | 66.7% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +6.0 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 4 | 2-2-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 41.5% | -5.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.2% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 38.5% | -8.6 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 4 | 0-4-0 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 32.7% | -11.1 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 5 | 3-0-2 | 80.0% | 66.7% | 65.0% | +8.6 |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 41.2% | -6.6 |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.1% | -12.6 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.9% | +11.0 |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 5 | 1-4-0 | 20.0% | 33.3% | 39.5% | -6.0 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.3 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 5 | 0-5-0 | 0.0% | 22.2% | 29.0% | -12.1 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 42.1% | -5.9 |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 63.2% | +12.7 |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 62.2% | +11.7 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.1 |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.5% | -10.4 |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -16.9 |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.4% | -15.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 51.7% | +1.7 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.5 |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.2% | +19.5 |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 24 from this event
The 24 public Wind Shadowstrike decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 9 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down).
Winners more often ran: Grand Crusader's Ring, Ensnaring Fumes, Regal Inquisition. Losers more often ran: Lost Providence, Scatter Essence, Calming Breeze.
Grand Crusader's Ring
Winning decks ran 0.8
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 0,
both ran the same in 5.
Ensnaring Fumes
Winning decks ran 2.9
copies on average,
losing decks 2.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Regal Inquisition
Winning decks ran 2.4
copies on average,
losing decks 2.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Zephyr
Winning decks ran 0.4
copies on average,
losing decks 0.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
4, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 4.
Crystallized Destiny
Winning decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
3, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Topsy Decree
Winning decks ran 2.2
copies on average,
losing decks 2.0.
Of 9 mirrors: the winner ran more in
5, the loser ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Lost Providence
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 3.
Scatter Essence
Losing decks ran 1.8
copies on average,
winning decks 1.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 2.
Calming Breeze
Losing decks ran 2.6
copies on average,
winning decks 2.2.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
4, the winner ran more in 2,
both ran the same in 3.
Veiling Breeze
Losing decks ran 1.4
copies on average,
winning decks 1.1.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
5, the winner ran more in 3,
both ran the same in 1.
Safeguard Amulet
Losing decks ran 0.6
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Fairy Whispers
Losing decks ran 3.1
copies on average,
winning decks 2.6.
Of 9 mirrors: the loser ran more in
3, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 5.
Show all 40 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 20 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost Providence | -0.44 | 1 | 5 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.44 | 4 | 0 | 3 | |
| Ensnaring Fumes | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Scatter Essence | -0.33 | 2 | 5 | 0 | |
| Regal Inquisition | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 4 | |
| Zephyr | +0.33 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| Calming Breeze | -0.22 | 2 | 4 | 3 | |
| Veiling Breeze | -0.22 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 5 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 2 | |
| Fairy Whispers | -0.22 | 1 | 3 | 5 | |
| Topsy Decree | +0.22 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| Dream Fairy | -0.22 | 3 | 5 | 1 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arrow Trap | +0.22 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Penumbral Waltz | +0.22 | 3 | 1 | 2 | |
| Cry for Help | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scout the Land | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirelle, Schwartz Queen | +0.11 | 4 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tempest Downfall | +0.11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Tristan, Shadowreaver | +0.11 | 1 | 0 | 8 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 6 | |
| Innervate Agility | -0.11 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |
| Resolute Stand | -0.11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Verdigris Decree | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Umbra Sight | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Orb of Sealing | -0.11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Heavenly Guide | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Abnegation | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 3 | |
| Mastermind Scheme | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Reclaim | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 7 | |
| Stifling Trap | +0.00 | 2 | 2 | 5 | |
| Blanche, Sheltering Saint | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |
| Nocturne's Oblivion | +0.00 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |
| Unmake Duality | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sharpen Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |