← Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Ascent London 2026 - Path of Steel
decks
4
(2.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
34
17-16-1
overall winrate
51.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
51.3%
avg ELO +0.5 per match
expected value
49.9%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1314
· median 1315
· range 1206–1421
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1038
Q1 1194
Q3 1419
1750
25% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 13.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 61.5% | +8.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 42.3% | -4.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.1% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 48.5% | -1.1 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 4.5% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 65.8% | +15.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.1% | -17.5 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | -20.1 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 33.3% | -26.7 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.7 |
| Fire Exia | 2.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 36.2% | -13.2 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Suited | 2.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 35.8% | -22.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.8% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 47.9% | -1.4 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 2.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.0% | -19.2 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.6% | +2.5 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arcane | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 1.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 36.6% | -21.5 |
| Water Fractal | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.3 |
| Wind Exia | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 1.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.6 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dawn of Ashes | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Overlord | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 62.7% | +20.3 |
| Water Neos | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.9% | +14.2 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 0.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | +15.9 |
| Wind Byakko | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Diana | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
